Evidence-first dossiers on battle lines, casualties, combatants, costs, military lessons and the outcomes most likely to come next.
Primary global shockHormuz disruption links the Iran war to energy, inflation and military budgets far beyond the region.
Tap a signal to open its current assessment.
Each report separates verified evidence, disputed claims and analyst judgment.
A long-range strike campaign has become a contest over the Strait of Hormuz, air defense endurance, economic coercion and the survival of Iran’s regional deterrent network.
A fifth year of full-scale war is defined by drones, industrial endurance, manpower, long-range strikes and a front that moves slowly despite extraordinary losses.
The army holds the east and retook Khartoum; the RSF dominates Darfur. Kordofan is the hinge in a de facto partition with mass atrocities, famine and drone warfare.
The high-intensity campaign has shifted into a coercive post-ceasefire struggle over disarmament, withdrawal, governance, hostages, reconstruction and the future of Palestinian statehood.
A nationwide democratic resistance overlaps with older ethnic wars. Resistance forces control more territory, while the junta retains aircraft, cities and external support.
Rwanda-backed M23 holds Goma, Bukavu and major eastern territory despite peace agreements, while Kinshasa relies on a fragmented coalition and struggles to restore state authority.
Jihadist groups are expanding through Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger while military governments trade Western partnerships for Russian support and struggle to hold rural territory.
Pakistan’s campaign against alleged TTP sanctuary has become an open interstate border war with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, mixing airstrikes, artillery, drones and militant attacks.
Battlefield claims are propaganda targets. Casualty categories conflict. Military budgets hide costs. Our system preserves those disagreements instead of flattening them into one impressive-looking number.
Read the methodology ↗Verified events, party claims and our analytical inference use different labels.
Especially for killed, wounded, spending, territorial control and force strength.
Probabilities, observable signals, time horizons and confidence—not prophecy.
Every map is dated and schematic. Every dossier links directly to its evidence.
Probability is not destiny. It is a prompt to watch the mechanisms that could turn pressure into combat.
A blockade/quarantine, political red line or collision during gray-zone operations
Potential severity · CatastrophicFatal China–Philippines encounter around Second Thomas or Scarborough Shoal
Potential severity · HighMisread missile launch, border deaths or command-and-control crisis
Potential severity · CatastrophicMass-casualty militant attack in India linked to Pakistan
Potential severity · CatastrophicNo. It is a dated public-source research product. Maps show strategic geography and generalized control, never live unit locations or targeting information.
We prioritize conflicts with high battle deaths, mass displacement, interstate escalation, major-power involvement, large humanitarian effects or systemic economic consequences.
Absolutely. The useful part is the explicit probability, horizon and observable signals. Forecasts are revised as those signals change.
Because sources count different periods and categories. Adding incompatible figures creates a precise-looking number that is less true.