War is uncertain.
The uncertainty should be visible.

What counts as a major conflict?

There is no single universal threshold. We include a conflict when several of the following are true: sustained organized combat, high direct or indirect mortality, mass displacement, interstate involvement, systemic economic consequences, major-power risk or a humanitarian emergency. The list is curated, not exhaustive.

A source ladder, not source worship

Authority depends on the question. A finance ministry can be strong on its budget and weak on enemy losses. A humanitarian agency may be strongest on verified civilian harm but unable to enter occupied territory.

1. Tier 1 · Direct recordsUN verification, audited budgets, official registers, treaty text, satellite-derived joint assessments.
2. Tier 2 · High-quality synthesisReuters, AP, CFR, SIPRI, World Bank, ACLED and established research institutions with transparent methods.
3. Tier 3 · Party claimsUseful when clearly attributed and cross-checked; never silently converted into fact.
4. Tier 4 · Analytical inferenceOur conclusions and probabilities, explicitly labeled and never cited as if a source said them.

Why the tables do not always add up

“Casualties” can mean killed and wounded, while headlines sometimes use it as a synonym for deaths. Sources also disagree on civilians, police, militias, missing persons, repeat wounds and whether deaths from hunger or disease are direct war deaths.

Strategic diagrams, not live targeting maps

The maps are original schematics based on public reporting. They generalize control zones, fronts, corridors, chokepoints and humanitarian pressure. They deliberately omit unit locations, coordinates and tactical detail. A point often means “this place matters,” not “a formation is located here.”

Four different bills

A national defense budget is not the same as a war cost. When it is the best available context, the dossier labels it as a ceiling or burden rather than attributing the whole amount to one theater.

Scenarios, signals and calibration

Each dossier defines mutually exclusive near-term outcomes that sum to 100%. Longer horizons provide a base-case narrative because precision decays rapidly. Probabilities are judgmental estimates informed by force balance, political objectives, logistics, backers, geography, economic endurance and historical base rates.

Where this product can mislead you