The 2021 coup
The military overturned the elected government, detained leaders and used lethal force against mass protest. Armed resistance grew from the failure of peaceful opposition.
Severe intensityStalemateSince February 1, 2021 coup; older ethnic wars
Myanmar’s Civil War
A nationwide democratic resistance overlaps with older ethnic wars. Resistance forces control more territory, while the junta retains aircraft, cities and external support.
Killed since coup100,000+CFR synthesis
Displaced5.2MCFR, 2026
Resistance control~42%Estimate; fragmented among groups
Junta control~21%Estimate; includes key cities and infrastructure
01
Executive assessment01 02 03
The bottom line
The resistance has denied the junta nationwide control and holds an estimated 42% of territory versus about 21% held by the military, but it is politically and militarily fragmented. The junta cannot reconquer the country cheaply; the opposition cannot yet take and hold the core cities or neutralize airpower. This is a fragmented stalemate, not a simple rebel march to victory.
Unfinished federalism
Myanmar has fought ethnic wars since independence. The coup connected Bamar-majority democratic opposition with older demands for autonomy, but it did not erase their different interests.
A military state within the state
The Tatmadaw’s economic holdings, constitutional privileges and self-image as guardian of national unity made genuine civilian supremacy intolerable to commanders.
How this war reached its current phase
Recurring ethnic wars
Central military rule and demands for autonomy produce the world’s longest-running internal conflicts.
Military coup
The Tatmadaw removes the elected government and crushes nationwide protests.
PDF expansion
New local defense groups link with some ethnic armies and open fronts in the heartland.
Resistance offensives
Ethnic coalitions and PDFs capture towns, bases and border routes; junta airstrikes intensify.
Reconfigured stalemate
The military reshuffles command and escalates bombing while resistance alliances show both strength and internal competition.
02
Interactive operational picture
Pressure points and lines of control
Choose a map layer, then tap the numbered points to understand why each place matters.
GEOGRAPHIC BASEInfluence zones, not continuous controlAssessment: September 8, 2026
Side A / coalition Side B / opposition Active / contested Aid / access
Selected pressure point
Rakhine
Arakan Army’s strongest zone and most developed parallel administration.
Generalized public-source influence map. Myanmar’s authority is a patchwork of towns, roads and rural zones; area percentages do not equal population control. Boundaries use Natural Earth public-domain geography. Control overlays are generalized editorial estimates from the report's cited public sources and are not suitable for navigation, targeting or legal boundary claims.
03
Order of battle
Who is fighting—and what each side needs
Side A
Military government
Tatmadaw, police, militias and a nominal civilian administration led by Min Aung Hlaing
- Political objective
- Preserve military rule, retake strategic towns and fracture resistance coalitions.
- Principal advantage
- Aircraft, heavy weapons, central banking/state machinery, Russia/China ties and control of major urban nodes.
- Binding constraint
- Manpower, defections, contested roads, economic decay and lack of broad legitimacy.
Side B
Resistance ecosystem
National Unity Government, People’s Defence Forces, Arakan Army and many ethnic armed organizations
- Political objective
- End military rule; goals range from restored democracy to a new federal order and ethnic autonomy.
- Principal advantage
- Territorial depth, local legitimacy in many areas, drones, dispersed organization and cross-border sanctuary.
- Binding constraint
- Fragmented command, competing territorial claims, uneven equipment and dependence on local finance.
04
Human cost
Casualties, without false precision
Rows may use different dates and definitions. They are not designed to be summed.
Party / populationKilledWoundedWhat the number misses
Conflict-wide since coup100,000+Unknown
CFR synthesis; includes multiple armed actors and civilians across poorly accessible areas.
CiviliansThousands directly targetedUnknown
Airstrikes, village burnings, detention deaths and landmines are documented; no single complete list exists.
Military forcesTens of thousands claimedUnknown
Resistance claims are often unverifiable and may double-count units or incidents.
Resistance forcesTens of thousands estimatedUnknown
Decentralization and clandestine structures prevent a consolidated count.
Why estimates diverge
Restricted access, propaganda incentives, missing bodies, repeated injuries, different time windows and inconsistent treatment of fighters, auxiliaries and indirect deaths. The most honest answer is often a bounded range with a date.
05
Financial burden
What the war is costing each side
Direct military outlays are only one layer. We also track destroyed assets, lost output, disrupted trade and reconstruction.
Best available cost signalEconomy ~10% smaller than 2019
Pre-2026 AP/World Bank context; war, coup, sanctions and the 2025 earthquake interact.
Medium confidence basisCost stack
01 Military operations
02 Asset destruction
03 Lost economic output
04 Long-term care & reconstruction
06
Outcomes lab
What happens next?
Explore the base case across four horizons, then inspect the mutually exclusive near-term scenarios.
Base-case outlook · Medium-high confidence
1/4More air attacks and local offensives; no side converts tactical successes into nationwide control.
Selected scenario
0%
Fragmented stalemate
Neither side unifies the country; governance fragments further.
Signals that would raise this probabilityJunta holds cities/airbases; resistance holds borderlands; no joint national command.
Probabilities are independent editorial estimates for the stated horizon and sum to 100%. They are not intelligence assessments or investment advice.
07
Paths out
Potential solutions—and why they fail
Path 01Best durable path
Federal transition compact
A common interim constitution, civilian authority and negotiated state/ethnic security arrangements.
Path 02Partial leverage
Regional arms and air-fuel pressure
Neighbors restrict aviation fuel, weapons and sanctions evasion while protecting humanitarian routes.
Path 03Low legitimacy
Junta-led electoral normalization
The military uses controlled elections to claim a civilian mandate.
08
Military science01 02 03 04
What this war is teaching
Preliminary lessons—not universal laws. Adversaries adapt, technologies interact with terrain, and survivorship bias is powerful.
Drones reward distributed resistance
Commercial systems give local groups reconnaissance and strike capability without a conventional air force.
Airpower preserves weak ground control
A regime can lose rural territory yet prevent concentration and punish governance from the air.
Coalition victory requires political architecture
Shared opposition to a junta does not automatically resolve ethnic borders, resources or chains of command.
Road control can outweigh area control
Holding rural terrain is less valuable if an opponent controls cities, airfields and the principal economic corridors.
09
Answers in plain English
Frequently asked questions
Who is winning Myanmar’s civil war?+
Resistance groups control more territory, but the junta controls most major institutions, airpower and important cities. The best description is a fragmented stalemate with a territorial resistance advantage.
Is the resistance one army?+
No. It includes the National Unity Government’s networks, local PDFs and long-established ethnic organizations with distinct goals and commands.
Why hasn’t the junta collapsed?+
It still controls aircraft, heavy weapons, the central state, key urban economies and external supply relationships. Opposition fragmentation also helps it survive.
What role does China play?+
China seeks border stability, trade routes and leverage. It pressures some ethnic groups into ceasefires while maintaining ties with the military, rather than backing one clean end state.
10
Evidence ledger
Core sources
Direct links used for the dated facts in this edition. Analysis also cross-checks open-source reporting across institutions.
01
Council on Foreign Relations · Updated Aug. 2026Civil War in Myanmar
↗02ACLED · OngoingMyanmar country conflict profile
↗03ACLED · Jul. 1, 2025How drone warfare is shaping Myanmar
↗04Reuters · Jun. 16, 2026World Bank cuts Myanmar growth forecast
↗Editorial note
This report synthesizes public information available through September 8, 2026. Front lines and casualty totals can change before the page is updated. Forecasts are the site’s own probabilistic judgments, not claims made by the linked sources.