Six pathways from pressure to combat—ranked by probability, potential severity and the observable event most likely to trigger escalation.
How to read this pageA 30% risk is not a prediction that war “will happen.” It means roughly three times in ten under comparable assumptions and the stated time window. Low probability can still demand attention when the consequence is catastrophic.
Interactive risk matrix
Likelihood × consequence
Tap a conflict node to inspect the activation trigger and restraint mechanism.
Catastrophic severityLower severity
Lower likelihoodHigher likelihood
Full watchlist
What would turn tension into war?
The trigger is more useful than a dramatic date. Watch mechanisms, not countdowns.
0126% risk
China–Taiwan
Window
2026–2030
Potential severity
Catastrophic
Activation trigger
A blockade/quarantine, political red line or collision during gray-zone operations
Strongest brake
Extreme amphibious risk, economic interdependence and U.S./Japanese deterrence
Fuel, blood, bridging equipment, dispersal and logistics contracts are harder to fake than speeches.
02
Civil-defense preparation
Evacuation rules, reserve call-ups, shelter activation and continuity plans suggest leaders see real risk.
03
Alliance consultation
Emergency exercises, access agreements and dependents leaving can reveal expectation of escalation.
04
Economic insulation
Capital controls, strategic stockpiles and shipping reroutes show preparation for sanctions or blockade.
Forecast FAQ
What probability can—and cannot—tell us.
Why not predict an exact year for China and Taiwan?+
Public “deadline” narratives often confuse a capability goal with a political decision. We use a window and observable triggers instead.
Do probabilities add up to 100%?+
No. These are separate conflicts, so several—or none—could occur. Probabilities only sum to 100% when a dossier presents mutually exclusive outcomes for one war.
How often should this watchlist change?+
After material events: mobilization, attacks, leadership change, alliance commitments, failed negotiations or a clear shift in military posture.
