Two armies inside one state
The RSF grew from Janjaweed forces into an autonomous national paramilitary with its own wealth and chain of command. A plan to integrate it into the SAF threatened both leaders’ power.
Extreme intensityEscalatingSince April 15, 2023
Sudan’s Civil War
The army holds the east and retook Khartoum; the RSF dominates Darfur. Kordofan is the hinge in a de facto partition with mass atrocities, famine and drone warfare.
Humanitarian statusWorld’s worstUN characterization
Territorial patternEast–west splitSAF east; RSF Darfur; Kordofan contested
Official documented deaths11,209Health ministry; true excess deaths far higher
People facing hungerNearly 20MWFP estimate reported Sep. 14; only 4M receiving partial aid
01
Executive assessment01 02 03
The bottom line
The SAF improved its position by retaking the capital and central corridors, but the RSF consolidated Darfur and can strike deep with drones. The war is not close to a national military decision. The likeliest trajectory is hardened east–west partition and competition for Kordofan, not reunification under either force.
A stolen democratic transition
Burhan and Hemedti jointly removed Omar al-Bashir, then derailed civilian rule in a 2021 coup. Their alliance collapsed over the distribution of power in a renewed transition.
War economies and foreign sponsorship
Gold, smuggling and cross-border arms give both camps resources outside public accountability. Competing regional backers reduce the incentive to compromise.
How this war reached its current phase
Bashir overthrown
SAF and RSF cooperate in removing the dictator, then share power with civilians.
Joint coup
Burhan and Hemedti derail the transition and deepen Sudan’s political crisis.
SAF–RSF war
Dispute over command and integration erupts into urban fighting.
Capital and Darfur diverge
SAF retakes Khartoum; RSF captures El Fasher and consolidates the west.
Kordofan and drones
The central front becomes decisive while both sides expand long-range attacks.
Aid financing becomes a second emergency
WFP says Sudan funding fell from $645 million in 2025 to $206 million by mid-September 2026, leaving a nearly $300 million gap to sustain current operations as almost 20 million people face hunger.
02
Interactive operational picture
Pressure points and lines of control
Choose a map layer, then tap the numbered points to understand why each place matters.
GEOGRAPHIC BASEGeneralized areas of military dominanceAssessment: September 14, 2026
Side A / coalition Side B / opposition Active / contested Aid / access
Selected pressure point
Darfur
RSF core territory after the fall of El Fasher; highest mass-atrocity risk.
Generalized public-source control map. Sudan contains many allied and local forces; the two-color picture intentionally simplifies fragmented authority. Boundaries use Natural Earth public-domain geography. Control overlays are generalized editorial estimates from the report's cited public sources and are not suitable for navigation, targeting or legal boundary claims.
03
Order of battle
Who is fighting—and what each side needs
Side A
Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
National army under Abdel Fattah al-Burhan; allied former rebels and militias; support from Egypt and others
- Political objective
- Preserve the recognized state, eliminate or subordinate the RSF and restore control over the west.
- Principal advantage
- State institutions, coast, air force, larger diplomatic recognition and population centers in the east.
- Binding constraint
- Limited infantry reach, internal allies with divergent interests and inability to dominate all territory.
Side B
Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Paramilitary under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, allied Arab militias and SPLM-N partners in some areas
- Political objective
- Hold Darfur, secure corridors east, compel power-sharing or establish a viable parallel state.
- Principal advantage
- Mobile ground forces, gold networks, cross-border supply and growing drone capability.
- Binding constraint
- Atrocity record, weak legitimacy, dependence on external logistics and difficulty governing destroyed territory.
04
Human cost
Casualties, without false precision
Rows may use different dates and definitions. They are not designed to be summed.
Party / populationKilledWoundedWhat the number misses
Documented direct deaths11,209 officialUnknown
Sudan’s health ministry total covers most states but cannot access all areas.
Modeled / excess mortalityLikely hundreds of thousandsNot measurable
Reuters cited experts who emphasize hunger, disease and inaccessible mass killings; do not add this range to official direct deaths.
2025 conflict deaths17,000+ recorded by ACLEDNot consolidated
Event-data fatalities are estimates and not a cumulative all-cause toll.
DisplacementNot applicable14M+ displaced in some 2026 estimates
Displacement changes quickly and includes internal and cross-border movement.
Why estimates diverge
Restricted access, propaganda incentives, missing bodies, repeated injuries, different time windows and inconsistent treatment of fighters, auxiliaries and indirect deaths. The most honest answer is often a bounded range with a date.
05
Financial burden
What the war is costing each side
Direct military outlays are only one layer. We also track destroyed assets, lost output, disrupted trade and reconstruction.
Best available cost signal$6.4B GDP lost
UNDP estimate reported April 2026; the war set development back decades.
Medium-high confidence basisCost stack
01 Military operations
02 Asset destruction
03 Lost economic output
04 Long-term care & reconstruction
06
Outcomes lab
What happens next?
Explore the base case across four horizons, then inspect the mutually exclusive near-term scenarios.
Base-case outlook · Medium-high confidence
1/4Fighting intensifies around Kordofan and Blue Nile; civilian conditions worsen regardless of modest territorial change.
Selected scenario
0%
De facto partition
SAF and RSF consolidate rival zones without a recognized border or peace.
Signals that would raise this probabilityParallel administrations, stable supply corridors, static Kordofan front.
Probabilities are independent editorial estimates for the stated horizon and sum to 100%. They are not intelligence assessments or investment advice.
07
Paths out
Potential solutions—and why they fail
Path 01Necessary
Backer-enforced ceasefire
Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia and other suppliers align behind an arms halt, monitoring and humanitarian access.
Path 02Hard but legitimate
Civilian-centered transition
Exclude commanders from unilateral control of the transition and build local civilian representation into negotiations.
Path 03Tempting, dangerous
Partition bargain
Formalize a ceasefire between zones to stop immediate killing.
08
Military science01 02 03 04
What this war is teaching
Preliminary lessons—not universal laws. Adversaries adapt, technologies interact with terrain, and survivorship bias is powerful.
Parallel forces are delayed civil war
Security-sector integration without a single civilian chain of command leaves existential rivalries intact.
Drones democratize strategic reach
An actor without traditional air superiority can attack distant capitals and infrastructure with imported systems.
External logistics decide endurance
Gold routes, border access and sponsors can sustain forces even after formal financial isolation.
Humanitarian collapse is not collateral
Siege, market fragmentation and aid obstruction become instruments that reshape territory and populations.
09
Answers in plain English
Frequently asked questions
Who is winning the war in Sudan?+
The SAF controls the recognized state core and retook Khartoum; the RSF controls most of Darfur. Neither is close to national victory. The map increasingly resembles partition.
How many people have died?+
No credible comprehensive count exists. The health ministry documented about 11,209 direct deaths in accessible areas, while experts believe excess mortality from violence, hunger and disease is in the hundreds of thousands.
Why can’t outside powers stop the war?+
Several outside powers back different parties or prioritize influence over a unified peace strategy. Diplomacy without control over weapons and finance has little leverage.
Is this the same as the old Darfur war?+
It is a national war with roots and actors connected to Darfur. The RSF evolved from Janjaweed structures, and ethnic mass violence in Darfur is again central.
10
Evidence ledger
Core sources
Direct links used for the dated facts in this edition. Analysis also cross-checks open-source reporting across institutions.
01
Reuters · Apr. 15, 2026Why is Sudan at war, and what is the impact?
↗02Council on Foreign Relations · Updated Jul. 29, 2026Civil War in Sudan
↗03ACLED · OngoingSudan conflict data
↗04UNDP · Apr. 14, 2026War set Sudan’s economy back 30 years
↗05Reuters / World Food Programme · Sep. 14, 2026WFP funding falls as almost 20 million face hunger
↗Editorial note
This report synthesizes public information available through September 14, 2026. Front lines and casualty totals can change before the page is updated. Forecasts are the site’s own probabilistic judgments, not claims made by the linked sources.